Water SlimesTier 2
at Mortal Ambition Regionals
decks
1
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.4%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1427
· median 1427
· range 1427–1427
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1161
Q3 1397
1584
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Slimes | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Slimes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
